A token yes. Newest cars only.
Baseline
FSD Delay Clock / fsddelay.org
Ministers, your clock is still running.
National approvals
9 27
- Netherlands approved FSD Supervised on 10 April.
- Eight more countries followed.
- EU-wide use still needs a committee vote.
Live scenario counter
Lives left on the table while EU-wide approval stays blocked
51.5From October 2024 under HW3 + HW4 fleet.
Since Dutch approval 13.1
Current rate / day 0.1
Scenario
The upside you freeze when you wait
Move the sliders. Watch the country ladder move.
Approval scope HW3 + HW4 fleet
Formula:
2023 road deaths x 2024 BEV fleet share x Tesla share inside BEVs x
selected Tesla hardware scope x assumed fatal-risk reduction
Hardware
HW4-only is not the fleet
Same data. Same safety assumption. The gap is how much of the fleet you unlock.
Newer hardware only. Most of the installed base stays out.
3.0x newest-only
The real unlock. Most of the FSD-capable fleet is in.
9.0x newest-only
Before you vote
HW3 plus HW4 is the real yes
HW4-only is a partial unlock. HW3 plus HW4 reaches most of the capable fleet.
The older FSD-capable fleet
Tesla says a car showing "Full self-driving computer" is HW3. FSD (Supervised) is listed as eligible from computer 3.0 up.
- Skip HW3 and a large capable fleet stays locked.
- HW3 + HW4 is the broad yes. HW4 alone is not.
The newer computer
HW4 is the newer generation. It is not the whole fleet.
- A HW4-only yes mostly unlocks newer cars.
- Tesla treats HW3 and HW4 as separate hardware.
Tesla's published safety claim
Tesla says FSD (Supervised) has 7x fewer collisions and 5x fewer off-highway collisions than driving without it.
- Public reporting is by driving mode, not by HW3 vs HW4.
- The 10% / 30% / 90% scopes are policy-reach assumptions.
A HW4-only yes is still a partial yes.
The counter defaults to HW3 + HW4 fleet. Newest-only leaves most capable cars outside.
National yes. EU still no.
Nine countries have approved nationally. Tesla's own text still points to a HW4-first rollout. EU-wide validity still waits.
- Netherlands first. Eight more followed.
- HW4-first leaves the HW3 fleet outside.
Extra friction needs evidence
RDW says EU rules are stricter than the U.S. stack. Approve now. Publish the data. Tighten where the numbers justify it.
- If you want extra alerts or gates, show the evidence in public.
Across the EU under HW3 + HW4 fleet.
From the RDW testing window.
Over the 189 days since 10 April 2026.
6.0 lives/year under HW3 + HW4 fleet.
Decision
Vote now or own the wait
Both paths have risk. Waiting freezes the upside while the clock runs.
What you win
- Unlock 25.2 lives/yr under HW3 + HW4 fleet.
- Stop about 0.1 lives/day from stacking up.
- Get European operating data, not more committee language.
- Show voters you can pick safety over stall.
What you risk
- You own the fallout if a failure goes public.
- You need audit, reporting, and rollback from day one.
- Media and incumbents will come at you immediately.
What you think you win
- More committee time. Less short-term heat.
- More time to polish conditions and liability language.
- Cover from groups that want delay.
What you own
- Leaving 25.2 lives/yr frozen under HW3 + HW4 fleet.
- Adding about 0.1 lives/day while nothing changes on the road.
- Other markets learn. Europe argues.
- Your delay becomes the story.
Committee
A vote may come 1 December
Nine countries already moved. EU-wide use still needs a member-state vote. 6 October was talks only. Next window: 1 December.
RDW issued national validity after 18 months of testing.
81 and 179 days after Dutch approval, the committee met and did not vote.
235 days after Dutch approval. The date is not locked.
Upside left on the table from 10 April to 1 December under HW3 + HW4 fleet.
RDW confirms the Commission step and the member-state vote. It does not publish the committee date. 1 December is the next window in play. It can slip.
Country ladder
Where delay costs most
Ranked by estimated lives per year. 2023 deaths. 2024 BEV share. Selected hardware scope.
| Rank | Country | Frozen annual upside | Context | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Germany National government vote in EU committee | 6.0 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.6% | 2,839 deaths 3.3% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #2 | France National government vote in EU committee | 5.7 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.5% | 3,154 deaths 2.8% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #3 | Netherlands RDW / Dutch road authority | 2.4 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 1.1% | 608 deaths 6.2% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #4 | Belgium Flemish approval / Belgian territory | 1.6 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.9% | 501 deaths 5.0% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #5 | Italy National government vote in EU committee | 1.3 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 3,039 deaths 0.7% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #6 | Denmark Danish Road Traffic Authority | 1.2 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 2.2% | 162 deaths 12.0% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #7 | Portugal National government vote in EU committee | 1.1 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.5% | 642 deaths 2.7% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #8 | Sweden National government vote in EU committee | 1.0 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 1.3% | 229 deaths 7.2% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #9 | Austria National government vote in EU committee | 1.0 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.7% | 402 deaths 3.8% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #10 | Spain National government vote in EU committee | 0.9 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 1,806 deaths 0.8% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #11 | Romania National government vote in EU committee | 0.6 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 1,545 deaths 0.6% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #12 | Hungary National government vote in EU committee | 0.4 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.3% | 472 deaths 1.4% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #13 | Finland National government vote in EU committee | 0.4 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.6% | 185 deaths 3.2% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #14 | Ireland National government vote in EU committee | 0.3 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.5% | 180 deaths 3.1% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #15 | Poland National government vote in EU committee | 0.3 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.0% | 1,893 deaths 0.3% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #16 | Bulgaria National government vote in EU committee | 0.2 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 525 deaths 0.6% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #17 | Czechia Czech Ministry of Transport | 0.2 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 502 deaths 0.5% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #18 | Greece National government vote in EU committee | 0.1 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 646 deaths 0.3% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #19 | Luxembourg National government vote in EU committee | 0.1 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 1.3% | 26 deaths 7.1% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #20 | Latvia National government vote in EU committee | 0.1 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.2% | 138 deaths 1.2% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #21 | Lithuania Lithuanian transport authorities | 0.1 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.2% | 159 deaths 0.9% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #22 | Slovakia Slovak Ministry of Transport | 0.1 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 266 deaths 0.5% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #23 | Croatia Croatian national approval | 0.1 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 274 deaths 0.5% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #24 | Slovenia AVP / Slovenian Traffic Safety Agency | 0.1 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.2% | 82 deaths 1.4% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #25 | Estonia Estonian Transport Administration | 0.0 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.2% | 59 deaths 0.9% BEV fleet share in 2024 | National approval |
| #26 | Malta National government vote in EU committee | 0.0 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.4% | 16 deaths 2.2% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
| #27 | Cyprus National government vote in EU committee | 0.0 lives/yr Addressable fleet share: 0.1% | 34 deaths 0.5% BEV fleet share in 2024 | Pending EU vote |
2023 is the latest full Eurostat country dataset.
Who holds the gate
Nine countries moved. The vote is next.
National authorities can move. Nine have. EU-wide use still needs a committee vote.
9 of 27 have moved
Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, Belgium, Slovenia, Czechia, Croatia, Slovakia.
EU-wide use is still blocked
RDW says the file still needs a Commission step.
A vote may come 1 December
EU-wide validity needs a majority vote in committee. 6 October was talks only. Next window: 1 December.
Timeline
How we got here
Long test. Dutch yes. Eight more. Vote still pending.
Joint testing starts
RDW later said Tesla and RDW began intensive testing about 18 months before Dutch approval.
EU death toll
The Commission reported about 19,400 road deaths in the EU in 2025.
Dutch approval
RDW made FSD Supervised valid in the Netherlands. EU-wide use still needed a later vote.
Lithuania
Second country. Recognized the Dutch approval.
Estonia
Third country. Recognized the RDW approval.
Denmark
Danish Road Traffic Authority accepted the Dutch approval.
Belgium
Flemish Mobility Minister Annick De Ridder signed national approval.
Slovenia
Sixth country. AVP recognized the Dutch approval.
Czechia
Seventh country. Czech Ministry of Transport recognized the Dutch approval.
Croatia
Eighth country. Croatia recognized the Dutch approval; Tesla announced rollout soon.
No EU vote
TCMV agenda gave FSD 25 minutes of discussion. No ballot.
Slovakia
Ninth country. Slovak Ministry of Transport recognized the Dutch approval; rollout begins soon.
Possible EU vote
Next and last TCMV meeting of 2026. Until then, EU-wide use stays blocked.
Method
How the numbers work
- 2023 Eurostat road deaths, so every EU country is in the same table.
- 2024 Eurostat BEV fleet share as the addressable-fleet proxy.
- Formula: deaths × BEV share × Tesla share × hardware scope × safety gain.
- Scope settings: newest-only 10%, HW4 30%, HW3 + HW4 90%.
Sources
Sources
- Tesla support: Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
Tesla says FSD (Supervised) has 7x fewer major and minor collisions and 5x fewer off-highway collisions than driving without it, but the public report is not split by hardware generation.
- Tesla support: Full Self-Driving (Supervised) Subscriptions
Tesla says vehicles with FSD computer 3.0 or above are eligible, subject to configuration and region.
- Tesla support NZ: Full Self-Driving (Supervised) Subscriptions
Tesla lists the Netherlands among current FSD subscription markets, says the package is for HW3 and HW4 vehicles, but says rollout begins with HW4 and the feature is currently only available on Full Self-Driving computer 4.0.
- Tesla support: AI Computer Installations
Tesla says owners with computer 2.0 or 2.5 can be upgraded to Full Self-Driving computer 3.0, and separately describes the newer AI computer.
- Tesla service bulletin SB-22-00-007
Tesla says a vehicle showing "Full self-driving computer" in Additional Vehicle Information is equipped with HW3.0.
- Tesla service bulletin SB-25-00-001
Tesla identifies certain HW4 car computers as a separate hardware group with its own rearview-camera issue.
- RDW response following a message from Tesla
RDW said the final assessment phase followed roughly 18 months of joint testing.
- Tesla recall: Enable B-Pillar Blindness Detection
Tesla says UNECE R79 required a customer-facing alert and blocked lane changes during a blinded-camera condition, while Tesla also says overlapping cameras meant an unreasonable risk to safety was not present.
- RDW explanation of European type approval Tesla with provisional validity in the Netherlands
RDW says Dutch validity began on 10 April 2026, EU-wide use still needs a Commission step plus a member-state vote, and that the U.S. and EU builds are not comparable one-to-one because Europe uses different and stricter pre-approval requirements.
- ETSC: Lithuania and Estonia authorise Tesla FSD
ETSC reported that Lithuania recognized the Dutch approval and that Estonia followed on 29 May 2026.
- Danish Road Traffic Authority: FSD Supervised provisionally approved in Denmark
The Danish authority says FSD Supervised may now be used in Denmark after it accepted the Dutch provisional type approval.
- Annick De Ridder on X: Belgium approval announcement
On 10 June 2026, Flemish Mobility Minister Annick De Ridder announced she had signed the approval for Tesla FSD Supervised on Belgian roads.
- Annick De Ridder on LinkedIn: Flemish approval reaches Belgian territory
De Ridder previously stated that a Flemish homologation would automatically mean homologation for the whole Belgian territory.
- Reuters: Slovenia clears Tesla FSD driver assistance
Reuters reported Tesla's 7 September 2026 announcement and said Slovenia's Traffic Safety Agency confirmed by email that it had recognized the temporary type approval.
- GOV.SI: Minister Vrtovec tests FSD after Slovenian approval
Slovenia's government said the country is the sixth in Europe to allow FSD Supervised on its roads.
- Czech Ministry of Transport: Czechia recognizes the RDW provisional approval
On 21 September 2026, the ministry said it recognized the Dutch RDW provisional approval under Article 39, making FSD Supervised usable in Czechia under those conditions.
- Tesla North: EU FSD vote pushed back as 6 October agenda shows talks only
The 119th TCMV agenda for 6 October 2026 listed FSD Supervised for 25 minutes of discussion only, pushing a potential vote to the 1 December 2026 meeting.
- Not a Tesla App: Tesla wins approval to launch FSD (Supervised) in Croatia
Reported in late September 2026 that Croatia recognized the Dutch RDW provisional approval, making it the eighth European country to allow FSD Supervised.
- Drive Tesla: Slovakia officially approves Tesla FSD
On 16 October 2026, Slovakia's Ministry of Transport recognized the Dutch RDW approval of FSD Supervised.
- Tesla Europe on X: Now approved in Slovakia
On 16 October 2026, Tesla Europe posted that FSD Supervised is now approved in Slovakia and that rollout begins soon.
- EU sets no Tesla FSD vote for May 5, Dutch to brief in 20-minute slot
Secondary reporting published 17 April 2026, citing a European Commission draft agenda screenshot, says 5 May 2026 is an Article 39 update slot and that the next scheduled TCMV meeting is 30 June 2026.
- European Commission: EU road deaths drop by 3% in 2025
The Commission reported around 19,400 road deaths across the EU in 2025.
- Eurostat demo_gind
Population on 1 January 2025.
- Eurostat road_eqs_zev
Share of battery-electric passenger cars in the national fleet, 2024.
- Eurostat tran_sf_roadus
Road traffic fatalities by country, 2023.
- Car photo: Tesla Model 3 (2023), Kazyakuruma, Wikimedia Commons (CC0)
Public-domain photo used for the car in the live counter, favicon, and share image, cut out and mirrored.
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